What Next-Gen DVD Will Survive the Next Three Years?

[Detomah]

Sony is fighting to be the winner in a storage media war again, this time against Toshiba. It's Blu-ray vs. HD DVD in a battle that looks suspiciously like the dust-up Sony lost about 25 years ago. Or is it? This one has a couple of interesting twists, though, thanks to some smart thinking by Samsung and some heavy duty research by Fujifilm. With expansions in electronic storage, you just might have a lot more physical space three years from now.
How many of you remember Sony’s Betamax? I know, I’m flashing back to a battle over the format for video storage that was lost a quarter of a century ago. But it still has relevance today. Most articles that I’ve seen covering the war for the next generation of video storage like to mention that old fight for TV viewers’ hearts and minds – and pocketbooks – at least in passing.

Up until very recently, there seemed to be several good reasons for that preoccupation. Let’s start with the most obvious comparison: Sony was an active combatant in that first war. Back then, it was Sony’s Betamax against JVC’s VHS. Now, it’s Sony’s Blu-ray against Toshiba’s HD-DVD. Needless to say, Sony lost. In fact, Sony lost so badly that Wikipedia, the free online encyclopedia that follows an open source model, observes that “The VHS format's defeat of the superior Betamax format became a classic marketing case study, now identified with the verbal phrase ‘to Betamax,’ wherein a proprietary technology format is overwhelmed in the market by a format allowing multiple, competing, licensed manufacturers, as in: ‘Apple Betamaxed themselves out of the PC market.’"

Another point worth noting about the Betamax vs. VHS war is that Sony was widely considered to have the better, more advanced technology. Betamax cassettes were smaller than VHS cassettes, and many videophiles said they produced a sharper picture. Betamax tapes were also supposedly faster to start up, and transitioned faster to “play” from “fast forward” or “rewind.” Additionally, not many people may have been aware of this, but the Betamax format had an audio-only mode that allowed for very high-fidelity sound reproduction as compared to normal tape recorders of the time. Another cool point about the Betamax format was that, despite the tapes themselves being smaller, they were capable of storing more video than the VHS format, because the tape ran more slowly.

The final point I’d like to mention is that Sony launched a huge marketing effort in an ultimately vain attempt to make the Betamax a success. The company was clearly committed to the product. While the Betamax format came out in the mid-70s, it wasn’t until the beginning of 1988, one year after Rolling Stone ran a story announcing that “the battle is over,” that Sony admitted to plans for a VHS line of VCRs.

There can be little doubt that, if the Japanese giant has a halfway decent corporate memory, the Betamax vs. VHS war still gives Sony executives nightmares. This point is worth keeping in mind as we look at the news dispatches covering the Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD format war.

As previously mentioned, Sony was a combatant in the earlier Betamax vs. VHS war. With this latest battle for what format will replace the DVD, it’s Sony’s Blu-ray vs. Toshiba’s HD-DVD. Both media have physical form factors that are similar to DVDs, though it was widely stated that a machine that plays one would not be able to play the other. At least, that was true of most current designs; in September, Samsung's head of consumer electronics, Choi Gee-Sung, hinted to the Financial Times Deutschland that his company would bring out a machine in 2006 capable of playing both Blu-ray and HD DVDs. "We would welcome a unified standard but if this doesn't come, which looks likely, we'll bring a unified solution to the market," he was quoted as saying. "It won't be simple but you'll see our solution in the coming year. Consumers will be too confused otherwise." This annoucement is almost too recent to have had an effect on the battle (yet) -- but it will, as I'll explain shortly.

As was true with the Betamax, Sony’s Blu-ray is the more advanced media. While both the Blu-ray and the HD-DVD require blue lasers to read their data, Sony’s Blu-ray stores much more data. An HD-DVD can store 15GB of data in a single layer format, and 30GB of data on a dual-layer disc. A Blu-ray disc, on the other hand, can store 25GB of data in a single layer, and 50GB of data on a dual-layer disc.

HD-DVD does have a certain advantage over the Blu-ray, however: since it is more closely related to DVDs, it will be easier to ramp up production quickly for HD-DVDs. Blu-ray’s manufacturing process is different enough from the one currently used to produce DVDs that manufacturers will need to make some investments in their infrastructure before they can begin making the discs. This could make a difference early on – but whether that edge lasts is another question. Remember, Sony’s Betamax had the market to itself for nearly a year, and still lost.

Be that as it may, Sony has invested a lot in the success of Blu-ray. The company has lined up support for the format from various entertainment giants, including Disney and game producer Electronic Arts. Among the more than 100 companies that support the Blu-ray format, electronic firms are also well-represented, including Apple, HP, Panasonic, and Pioneer. Sony was also planning to put a Blu-ray reader in its PlayStation 3.

Why am I saying “was” when Sony’s Blu-ray seems to have more support and is the technologically superior format? The parallels to Betamax must have cut a little too closely for Sony. It began working in earnest with Toshiba to hammer out a compromise format that would combine features of both Blu-ray and HD-DVD. At last report, the two companies could not agree on which features to keep, and talks had broken down. Sony wanted the compromise format to use Blu-ray’s disc structure and HD-DVD’s software technology, while Toshiba argued for keeping HD-DVD’s disc structure and using Sony’s data recording technology.

A unified format would be arguably better for consumers. Remember, as things currently stand, Blu-ray and HD-DVD are enough alike that their packaging would look very similar on store shelves. This could cause problems when purchasing blank discs or movies. There are enough people who never quite figured out how to program their VCRs. What will they do when, confronted with nearly-identical boxes, they must remember which one they need? And how disgusted will they be when they get their purchases home, only to discover they chose the wrong format? If Samsung follows through with its hints - possibly a big "if" - a unified machine could be a lifesaver, not to mention a tremendous moneymaker.

Samsung's announcement could be even more than a lifesaver or a tremendous moneymaker. It could make the Betamax vs. VHS comparision irrelevant. Remember the DVD+R and DVD-R formats? Manufacturers made dual format burners; pretty soon, nearly all burners became dual format. Now, nobody really cares what media they buy unless they have an old DVD burner.

Another issue to remember is how long it took DVDs to catch on. Movie companies still haven't completed the transition in format, and quite some time passed before it was worth it for anyone but the very early adopters to buy a DVD player, because there was so little on the market to play on it. If Samsung delivers its dual player by any time next year, that should be soon enough for most people to purchase it as their first new format player, because -- following previous history -- most movie studios won't have enough releases in the new format to make it worth upgrading until then. For Sony, Toshiba, and videophiles everywhere, this could be a win-win situation.

Actually, Sony and Toshiba may both become irrelevant in this storage media war, thanks to Fujifilm and (at last count) ten other companies. You see, while we’re on the current generation of DVDs, and Sony and Toshiba are arguing over the next generation of electronic storage media, this group of companies, members of HVD Alliance, has already come up with the generation after that. It’s called a Holographic Versatile Disc.

A firm called Optware successfully demonstrated the recording and play back of digital movies using its own patented Collinear Technologies. Details about this technology are available at http://www.optware.co.jp/english/index_tech.htm. While it is a little beyond my understanding, certain points stand out.
First, the technology is intended to utilize existing manufacturing processes. This factor could give it an advantage over Blu-ray, and put it on a par with HD-DVD. In fact, in a press release talking about a demonstration of the media at National Association of Broadcasters Show in Las Vegas, Fujifilm explicitly states that the HVD technology features a “smaller system design that is compatible with today’s DVD media.” It might also help explain why Sony is so eager for a compromise – another competing format is breathing down both Sony’s and Toshiba’s necks.

Second, this storage format will blow away almost everything that has come before. You like the idea of dual layer Blu-rays storing 50GBs? How about a read-only disc that stores twice that much data? And a recordable disc that stores 200GB? That’s only the beginning, though. Can you imagine up to 3.9 terabytes of data on one disc? According to Fujifilm, that is the potential for this technology.

Third, transfer speed will not be the stumbling block you might expect when dealing with that much data. This technology is capable of 40 times the transfer speed of modern DVD media. Now that might not seem like much when you look at the difference in the quantity of data stored (over 200 times as much on an HVD as opposed to a DVD), but how many people are going to want or need to transfer 3.9 TB of data all at once?

It might be the fourth point I found interesting about this futuristic media that actually sent Sony to Toshiba’s conference rooms. Again, I will quote from the part of Fujifilm’s press release that covers HVD’s “critical advantages for storing large amounts of data, including:…a system based on open standards that ensures future enhancements and product longevity. Ecma International, the global industry standards organization dedicated to the standardization of information and communication systems, is currently processing four (4) Standards Projects based on Collineartm Technology put forth by the HVD Alliance.”

Take another look at the history of the Betamax. It was a proprietary format. It lost out to a format that was licensed to a number of different manufacturers. How do you suppose a storage media, no matter how well supported in the industry, would fare against another media that can not only store several times as much data, but is based on open standards?

Yes, it is entirely possible that Optware and the HVD Alliance will not come out with a working version of their technology for consumers in time to beat Blu-ray and/or HD-DVD to market. Indeed, some of the most recent "news" about the media is a year old. But it looks like they’re going to try. On Optware’s Frequently Asked Questions page, it states that a sample drive for businesses and professionals “will be released in the beginning of 2005.” Sadly, they seem to have missed that target – the press release from Fujifilm did not mention that the company was taking orders. As to consumers, release of that version of the drive “will be after 2006.”

If you read John Aubrey’s piece about Blu-ray, located at http://www.devhardware.com/c/a/Opinions/BluRay/, you know that the technology is currently available in Japan, but is very expensive. As far as the mass consumer market, we wouldn’t be likely to see it over here until 2006 or 2007. This strikes me as being uncomfortably close (for Sony) to the possible timing of the release of HVD drives.

I’m not sure exactly how versatile these HVDs are, but if they are truly capable of storing the amount of electronic data they describe, I can easily envision a not-too-distant-future in which a person can store all of their music, movies, games, books, and electronic projects on one or at most two discs. With a small portable device that includes a screen, some simple controls, and a portable keyboard – such as a PDA or even an adapted version of Sony’s PlayStation Portable – you could take it all to the beach, on vacation, or wherever you needed to go. If you lose the disc, no big deal; you can keep another disc or two at home with everything, just for backup.

Indeed, if the format is appropriately archival, large libraries such as the Library of Congress might be able to back up all of their data (which these days includes audio and video in addition to traditional text) and store it easily at several locations in a limited amount of physical space. In fact, Wikipedia's entry on the topic of HVDs states that "The books in one of the largest libraries in the world, the US Library of Congress, contain about 20 terabytes of text. Neglecting images, the content could be stored on a little more than 6 of these discs." I can remember science fiction stories in which our heroic travelers from Earth carried “the sum of human knowledge” with them on their spaceships. I wondered how they managed it. Perhaps now we’re beginning to see how that might actually be possible one day.